To provide clear direction in our analysis, we initially narrowed our research scope to four critical domains representing era-defining security challenges: Biosecurity, Defence & Deterrence, AI Security and Trustworthiness, and Climate Security.
Within each area, we interviewed relevant experts in order to generate an initial longlist of technologies to consider. These experts included CFG experts, external academics, independent researchers, and industry leaders from diverse backgrounds, with each domain having at least one reputable expert from both industry and academia. Through the process, we interviewed over 40 different experts in November 2024 through April 2025, usually consisting of an initial in-person or digital interview and subsequent follow-ups to verify our conclusions as the report took shape.
While our chapters on biosecurity, climate security, and AI drew on insights from academics, independent researchers, and civilian technologists, our analysis of emerging defence technologies required a different approach. In order to build a conception of emerging trends in warfare that was as up-to-date and reliable as possible, we interviewed engineers and software developers at Ukrainian companies, in addition to developers at the U.S. company Skydio and several European civilian drone start‑ups. In combination with these technical discussions, we spoke with former and current soldiers in the Ukrainian military the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment and other units engaged in electronic warfare. As such, our analysis results from the combination of the technical insight of developers and the frontline experience of Ukrainian infantry, drone pilots, and officers, in addition to the written source material cited throughout.
From there, we filtered our longlist of technologies through follow-up research using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods to understand the safety benefits and growth potential for each technology. This process was guided by each technology’s fulfilment of three criteria:
- Will development of technology bring significant safety benefits to current and future generations, considering risks to safety, prosperity, and democracy, in the EU?
- Is the technology innovating or growing rapidly to be a driver of economic growth?
- Is the EU in a position to act to build and capture the potential of the technology?
In addition to additional expert interviews, our qualitative assessments were informed by a broad range of published academic research, industry reports, and policy papers, including analyses from the European Commission, McKinsey Global Institute, RAND Corporation, and EU agencies such as the European Environment Agency. The full bibliography is detailed below.
Our quantitative analysis was further informed by incorporating estimates from multiple reputable data providers, notably Statista, Our World in Data, Grand View Research, and Eurostat. We additionally utilized privileged access to the proprietary global database provided by Economic Mind. Where possible, we establish quantitative estimates of human risk, economic risk, and the projected growth of relevant markets based on data from these providers, with minimal processing where needed. Because the technological domains discussed herein are either novel or still emerging, each estimate carries with it a degree of uncertainty, which we acknowledge throughout this project. Nevertheless, numerical estimates – even uncertain ones – are valuable for conveying an approximate order of magnitude of potential impact.
Together, these sources provide a comprehensive picture of the current and future potential outlook of the technologies, their market potential, and the security concerns they address.
Our resulting list identifies 10 technologies that have an outsized potential to both improve the EU’s ability to address critical security concerns and improve the European economy’s position within industries projected for substantial growth.
Scope and limitations
The 10 technologies identified herein do not constitute a comprehensive list of the technologies the EU can and should make efforts to promote. Both within and outside of the four technological domains we consider, there are many more which merit consideration.
Our recommendations are furthermore not sufficient by themselves to address the security issues of our time, for the EU or for humanity as a whole. There are no “silver bullets” which can eliminate the potential systemic risks to public safety, prosperity and democracy fueled by emerging technologies, geopolitical turbulence and intensifying climate change. Our recommendations are not guarantees for future prosperity and growth, but should be seen as a part of an overall vision that must remain agile and adaptive to changes both within our narrow verticals and outside them. However, we believe that by investing with foresight in these 10 technologies, the EU can become better situated to ensure the safety and prosperity of Europe in the years and decades to come.
