Why the EU needs a comprehensive climate security strategy

This issue brief examines how the impacts of climate change and climate interventions could affect the EU’s security, and explores how timely governance and prudent research by the European Union can improve potential outcomes. To this end, the Centre for Future Generations (CFG) recommends the EU develop and implement a comprehensive Climate Security Strategy, one that includes an analysis of solar radiation modification and its potential effects on the EU’s security profile.

Annex 1: Key References to Security Implications of Climate Change and Interventions 

The following provides an overview of key statements by institutions in the US, EU, and UN pertinent to security implications of climate change and climate interventions; in order of recency. Highlights are ours.

United States Department of Defense, Climate change and global security, 2024

“Since weather extremes may alter the defence posture of both Allies and potential adversaries, weather manipulation could be weaponized. The threat of state-sponsored large-scale weather manipulation using geoengineering techniques warrants an Allied ability to detect such actions.
While large-scale deployment of SAI is observable, many have called for research to be conducted into SAI to facilitate informed policy debates. In particular, The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) states, “Outdoor experiments would be valuable in combination with model and laboratory studies for understanding processes involved with potential SRM (Solar Radiation Modification) deployment.” A report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine proposes a small-scale research, typically smaller than 100X, that would result in an observable impact on climate and be conducted under an international regime of governance founded on transparency. While international collaboration in SAI research could be beneficial in creating sound policy decisions regarding issues associated with climate intervention, one must also address the concern of state actors who may conduct this type of research without transparency and then may leverage knowledge gained to produce a unilateral breakout capability. […] A program to measure stratospheric aerosols and particulates is also needed to improve atmospheric modelling and prevent strategic surprise. This program should provide a capability for the widespread measurement of atmospheric aerosols and particulates to ensure that an adversary cannot be positioned for strategic surprise in executing unilateral climate interaction (sic) action. Further, possessing the capability to deny that stratospheric tampering occurred is a valuable message to counteract potential histrionics used in psychological operations. […] Finally, there is a need to leverage remote sensing for large-scale monitoring, given the global implications of climate intervention technologies. A partnership between the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the DoD could address the challenge of collecting all available information, including the measurement data recommended above, to provide an assessment of adversary plans for large-scale climate intervention activities. […] For the DoD, the implications of climate intervention include not only the effect of such approaches on its military operations but also the possibility that it will have to respond to state sponsored climate intervention activities. The DoD will have to develop the capability to monitor such activities, which includes deploying the appropriate sensing capability. Measuring stratospheric aerosols and particulates to avoid strategic surprise will be key. The DoD must also partner with other government agencies developing these modeling and sensor capabilities.”

European Environment Agency, European Climate Risk Assessment, 2024

“The first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) is a comprehensive assessment of the major climate risks facing Europe today and in the future. It identifies 36 climate risks that threaten our energy and food security, ecosystems, infrastructure, water resources, financial systems, and people’s health. Many of these risks have already reached critical levels and can become catastrophic without urgent and decisive action.
(Extreme) events, combined with environmental and social risk drivers, pose major challenges throughout Europe. Specifically, they compromise food and water security, energy security and financial stability, and the health of the general population and of outdoor workers; in turn, this affects social cohesion and stability.”

UN Security Council 9547th meeting, Press Release, 2024

“The Security Council today concluded its open debate on climate change and food insecurity, with speakers calling for urgent action to address the profound impact of these escalating crises particularly on vulnerable and conflict-affected nations.”

US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Slowdown of the Motion of the Ocean, 2023

“…the movement of water north and south throughout the Atlantic might be weakening due to climate change,” with potentially severe consequences for weather patterns in Europe.”

European Commission and High Representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joint Communication on the Climate-Security Nexus, 2023

“In the context of accelerated global warming, deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems (referred to as “geoengineering”), such as solar radiation modification, is attracting more attention.  However, the risks, impacts and unintended  consequences that these technologies pose are poorly understood, and necessary rules, procedures and institutions have not been developed. These technologies introduce new risks to people and ecosystems, while they could also increase power imbalances between nations, spark conflicts and raise a myriad of ethical, legal, governance and political issues. Guided by the precautionary principle, the EU will support international efforts to assess comprehensively the risks and uncertainties of climate interventions, including solar radiation modification and promote discussions on a potential international framework for its governance, including research related aspects. …
Climate change and environmental degradation pose increasing risks to international peace and security. Extreme weather events, rising temperatures and sea levels, desertification, water scarcity, threats to biodiversity, environmental pollution and contamination and loss of livelihoods threaten the health and well-being of humanity, and can create the potential for greater migratory movements and displacement, pandemics, social unrest, instability and insecurity.”

European Commission, Communication on Managing climate risks – protecting people and prosperity, 2023

“Climate resilience is a matter of maintaining societal functions, but also of competitiveness for economies and companies, and thus jobs. Managing climate risks is a necessary condition for improving living standards, fighting inequality and protecting people. It is a matter of economic survival for rural and coastal areas, farmers, foresters and fishers. For businesses, climate risks are already well recognised and are seen as the top four risks in a decade.”

Council of the EU, Council conclusions on Climate and Energy Diplomacy, 2023

“EU climate and energy diplomacy is a core component of the EU’s foreign policy.”

UN Environment Program, One Atmosphere, 2023

“SRM could create societal risks including the potential for international conflicts (because of transboundary effects), unilateral SRM (‘rogue’ parties may opt for SRM deployment) and counter and countervailing SRM deployments. SRM deployment would therefore raise ethical, moral, legal, equity and justice questions.
The lower cost estimate of an SRM deployment (about 20 billion USD per year per 1°C of cooling) puts the cost of an SRM deployment within the reach of many states and perhaps non-state actors, raising concern over how a ‘rogue deployment’ might be avoided or responded to. […] There are also concerns that differences of opinion over whether, what kind or how much SRM to deploy could generate political and possibly even military conflict.
Critically, integrated assessments of many impacts, both positive and negative, remain limited in scientific literature; for example, mortality and morbidity from heat stress, water resources, flood risk, storm damage, vector-borne diseases, biodiversity, food security, ocean ecosystems and fisheries.”

UN Security Council, Climate Crisis Generating Growing Threats to Global Peace, 2023

“With the climate crisis generating an increasing threat to global peace and security, the Security Council must ramp up its efforts to protect the Organization’s peace operations around the world and lessen the risk of conflicts emanating from rising sea levels, droughts, floods and other climate-related events, briefers, ministers and delegates told the 15-nation organ.”

European Parliament Research Services, Briefing: Climate change considerations for EU security and defence policy, 2022

“Among the sectors affected, security and defence is not spared: climate change not only acts as a threat multiplier, but also impacts capabilities and operational considerations.”

UN Environment Program, Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks, 2019 and revised in 2022 

“Residents of urban and peri-urban areas in climate-exposed regions face growing risks of displacement (and possibly secondary displacement), especially in vulnerable coastal regions. The effect of environmental and climatic changes on migration is best understood within the context of existing migration patterns. Conflicts can force people in high-risk areas to flee to less dangerous places within their own country or across borders. In cases where environmental risks and violent conflicts occur at the same time, this pressure can even be intensified, and in receiving areas, an influx of migrants can put pressure on local resources or public services, exacerbating the likelihood of political tensions or outbreaks of violence. However, migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy. Migration can improve living conditions and provide economic perspectives. Temporary or seasonal migration from severely affected regions to less affected areas, such as during seasonal rainfalls or heat waves, can help cope with a crisis.”

UN Development Program, A typology and analysis of climate-related security risks, 2022:

“The analysis shows that climate change is recognized by many countries as a matter of national security, but also as a factor that exacerbates the drivers of different types of conflict and security risks. Conflict and insecurity are also described in the NDCs as increasing vulnerability to climate change and/or as being potentially disruptive to climate action and to the achievement of NDC targets, including in post-conflict situations.”

United States National Intelligence Council, Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040, 2021

“Risk of Unilateral Geoengineering Increasing: We assess there is a growing risk that a country would unilaterally test and possibly deploy large-scale solar geoengineering technologies as a way to counter intensifying climate effects if it perceived other efforts to limit warming to 1.5˚C had failed. Without an international agreement on these technologies, we assess that such a unilateral effort probably would cause blowback.”  And, “We assess that the lack of any country level dialogue or governance body to set regulations and enforce transparency over research increases the possibility that state or nonstate actors will independently develop or deploy the technology— possibly covertly—in a manner that risks conflict if other nations blame them for a weather disaster they believe was caused by geoengineering.
Large-scale geoengineering could be internationally disruptive because of its potential to substantially affect the Earth’s biosphere, which would change global weather patterns and provide climate benefits to some regions at the expense of others. Depending on the scale and location of deployment, it could change weather systems in the United States.
Researchers in several countries, including Australia, China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as several EU members, are exploring geoengineering techniques. We assess that the lack of any country level dialogue or governance body to set regulations and enforce transparency over research increases the possibility that state or nonstate actors will independently develop or deploy the technology— possibly covertly—in a manner that risks conflict if other nations blame them for a weather disaster they believe was caused by geoengineering.”

EU Commission, Communication on Forging a climate-resilient Europe – the new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, 2021

“The impacts of climate change have knock-on effects across borders and continents. Even local climate impacts have regional or global repercussions, and such transboundary climate risk can reach Europe. For instance, the disruption of port infrastructure could hamper or even close down trade routes, both for commodities and goods, with potential cascading effects across international supply chains.”

UN Climate Security Mechanism, Progress report, 2021

“The Climate Security Mechanism (CSM) is a joint initiative by the United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It was established in 2018 with the objective of strengthening the capacity of the United Nations system to analyze and more systematically address the adverse impacts of climate change on peace and security. The CSM works with partners around the world to enhance a gender-sensitive understanding of the issue and to support capacity building efforts in United Nations entities and regional and subregional organizations for the prevention and management of climate-related security risks.”

Council of the EU, Council conclusions on Climate Diplomacy, 2020

“The European Union is acutely aware that climate change multiplies threats to international stability and security in particular affecting those in most fragile and vulnerable situations, reinforcing environmental pressures and disaster risk, contributing to the loss of livelihoods and forcing the displacement of people. … The Council continues to encourage the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations system to create a comprehensive information basis for the UNSC on climate-related security risks, to fully integrate short and long-term climate and environmental risk factors in the assessment and management of threats to peace and security, at country, regional and international levels, and to draw on the expertise of the whole UN system in order to find operational responses to these risks and strengthen UN missions on the ground.”

EU External Action Service, Climate Change and Defence Roadmap, 2020

“Climate change increases global instability. This will likely increase the number of crisis situations to which the EU might need to respond while at the same time the armed forces will be asked more frequently to assist civilian authorities in response to flooding or forest fires, both at home and abroad. Future capabilities will need to adapt to this changing operational environment (e.g. extreme heat or higher sea levels). At the same time, the armed forces need to invest in greener technologies throughout their capability inventory and infrastructure.”

International Military Council on Climate and Security, The World climate and security report, 2020

“Integrate climate into armed forces risk assessment, early warning, surveillance, and operational preparations to include adaptation measures to climate-proof military infrastructure.Early warning and surveillance framework should also have the capacity to anticipate risks from emergent climate-manipulating technologies such as geoengineering.”

UN Development Program, Climate Security Nexus and Prevention of Violent Extremism, 2020

“Climate change can contribute to food and water insecurity, but also increase competition for essential resources, impair livelihoods and coping strategies to have disruptive effects on the life opportunities of young people. It can drive forced displacement and rural-urban migration as well as alter transhumance patterns, potentially fuelling social tensions between different communities and exacerbating the drivers of conflict and fragility. Investment in adaptation and resilience can offset some of these impacts, but not all. These indirect impacts on governance and social systems are an important consideration when examining the intersectional risks posed by climate change and violent extremism.”

Council of the EU, Conclusions on Security and Defence in the context of the EU Global Strategy, 2019

“Underlines the importance environmental issues and climate change have for security and defence, as outlined in the Council conclusions on Climate Diplomacy of February 2019. The Council also welcomes the increased climate sensitivity of EU actions on conflict prevention and sustainable security and emphasises the need for adequate risk assessment and risk management strategies. […] considering the impact of climate change within the assessment of global threats and challenges.”

EU External Action Service, EU Statement before the United Nations Security Council, “Addressing the impacts of climate-related disasters on international peace and security” 2019

“Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for conflicts over access to increasingly scarce resources and for instability and international and internal displacement. […] Assessing climate and environmental risks and their potential impact on socio-economic stability should be done in all countries but has to become a priority especially in the most fragile situations.”

EU External Action Service, A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy, 2016

“Yet today terrorism, hybrid threats, economic volatility, climate change and energy insecurity endanger our people and territory. … Climate change and environmental degradation exacerbate potential conflict, in light of their impact on desertification, land degradation, and water and food scarcity. We will therefore redouble our efforts on prevention, monitoring root causes such as human rights violations, inequality, resource stress, and climate change – which is  a threat multiplier that catalyses water and food scarcity, pandemics and displacement.”

European Union Institute for Security Studies EUISS, Report on Space security for Europe, 2016

“This can include reinforcing the use of space assets for addressing global challenges (such as environment protection, climate change, sustainable development, and disaster response) while at the same time building space economic diplomacy to promote the European industrial base. International space cooperation can thus become a diplomatic tool that serves both as a market opener for the promotion of European solutions abroad and as a door opener to deeper cooperation on space security issues.”

UN Environment Program, Livelihood Security Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel, 2011

“Changes in the [Sahel’s] regional climate are impacting issues linked to the availability of natural resources essential to livelihoods in the region, as well as food insecurity. Along with important social, economic and political factors, this can lead to migration, conflict or a combination of the two.”

UN General Assembly, “Invites Major United Nations Organs to Intensify Efforts in Addressing Security Implications of Climate Change”, 2009

“Deeply concerned about the possible security implications of climate change, the General Assembly today invited the major organs of the United Nations, including the Security Council, to intensify their efforts to address the challenge, as appropriate and within their respective mandates.”

UN Security Council, “Security councils hols first-ever debate on impact of climate change on peace, security”, 2007

“Security council holds first-ever debate on impact of climate change on peace, security, hearing over 50 speakers. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that projected climate changes could not only have serious environmental, social and economic implications, but implications for peace and security (…) outlined several “alarming, though not alarmist” scenarios, including limited or threatened access to energy increasing the risk of conflict, a scarcity of food and water transforming peaceful competition into violence and floods and droughts sparking massive human migrations, polarizing societies and weakening the ability of countries to resolve conflicts peacefully.”