BRUSSELS – Drawing from an extensive scenario planning project mapping five scenarios for the next decade of general purpose AI, a new analysis from Centre for Future Generations (CFG) reveals how AI development pathways could reshape labour markets, geopolitics, and society at large – providing policymakers with critical insights for navigating an uncertain landscape.

The analysis challenges the “business-as-usual” assumptions still prevalent among many European policymakers, demonstrating that across all scenarios examined, significant transformation lies ahead regardless of specific AI capabilities assumed.

“Even without further breakthroughs, current AI systems contain sufficient capability to fundamentally change society,” states the report. “The question isn’t ‘if’ but ‘who’, ‘how’, and ‘where’.”

Key themes include:

• AI may accelerate its own progress: Leading labs are already using AI to optimize R&D processes, creating feedback loops that could compress years of expected progress into months
• Current safety approaches face mounting pressure: Technical guardrails designed for limited AI systems may prove inadequate as capabilities expand
• Power concentration threatens democratic oversight: Control over AI infrastructure creates unprecedented asymmetries between a small number of entities and the rest of society

The scenarios highlight particular vulnerabilities for the European Union, which faces a “fundamental mismatch” between regulatory processes taking years to implement and technologies transforming in months. While the AI Act represents an important step, CFG warns it covers only part of the picture and risks locking institutions into frameworks misaligned with how AI actually evolves. As the Draghi Report acknowledged, national and regional institutional layers add complexity that slows the legislative process – the AI Act took over three years to pass while technology advanced with increasing speed.

“The window for shaping AI outcomes is rapidly narrowing,” states Jakob Graabak, Tech Foresight Director at CFG. “As AI capabilities advance and deployment accelerates, the opportunity to establish foundational governance frameworks, safety standards, and societal adaptations diminishes. This urgency demands immediate, coordinated action.”

CFG calls for three core capabilities to be substantially strengthened: deeper technical expertise embedded throughout government institutions, more agile policy processes, and sophisticated foresight capabilities that can directly inform decision-making.

Explore the full scenario analysis here.