Governing climate interventions in an uncertain geopolitical future
We convened a foresight workshop with experts from key European institutions to identify governance challenges relevant to climate interventions.
On 25 September, we convened a strategic foresight workshop in Brussels with experts from key European institutions to discuss climate interventions.
The workshop brought together diverse perspectives on what the future might hold. Participants explored tensions and uncertainties, using a structured process to consider multiple possibilities rather than simple either/or outcomes.
This approach helped identify potential governance challenges that could arise when societies face imminent climate threats and pressure their politicians to consider technologies such as solar radiation modification (SRM).
How can foresight support the preparedness and resilience of the EU?
In an increasingly volatile and changing future, foresight plays a critical role in preparing decision-makers for inevitable uncertainty. Foresight is not about prediction, but about systematically exploring contrasting pathways, tensions, and trade-offs. By imagining different possible futures, policy-makers can identify emerging challenges, explore strategic options, and strengthen the Union’s preparedness, agency, and resilience.
In this workshop, EU foresight experts discussed how divergent geopolitical conditions, competing policy priorities, and different governance choices might shape Europe’s role in responding to global climate interventions.
By mapping out polarities and stress-testing assumptions, participants contributed to building richer scenarios that can support anticipatory governance. The collaborative process revealed critical tensions, such as the tensions between urgency and caution, global coordination and national sovereignty, and scientific certainty versus democratic deliberation. Their input also underscored the importance of legitimacy, transparency, and inclusiveness in any future governance of climate interventions.
Looking ahead
Insights from this workshop will inform CFG’s ongoing strategic foresight work on climate interventions, ensuring that EU perspectives are integrated into wider international conversations.
